Thursday March 13, 2025
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed, left, and Eritrea’s President Isaias Afwerki attend the reopening of the Eritrean embassy in Ethiopia in July 2018 (Photo: EPA)
Mogadishu (HOL) — Ethiopia and Eritrea are on the verge of a new conflict as both nations escalate military deployments near their shared border, raising fears of renewed hostilities in the volatile Horn of Africa.
Lt. Gen. Tsadkan Gebretensae, Vice President of the Interim Administration of Tigray, warned that war between Ethiopia and Eritrea "seems inevitable," with military preparations reaching their final stages. "A war between Ethiopia and Eritrea could break out at any moment," he wrote in an opinion piece published by The Africa Report. He expressed concerns that Tigray could become a battleground again, and the window to prevent war is rapidly closing.
The rising tensions stem from a mix of historical grievances, Ethiopia’s geopolitical ambitions, and internal power struggles in Tigray. Eritrea, which fought alongside Ethiopian federal forces during the 2020-2022 war against the Tigray People's Liberation Front (TPLF), has distanced itself from the Pretoria Agreement—a ceasefire deal signed in November 2022. The agreement ended the devastating war but has failed to address lingering disputes, particularly over troop withdrawals and territorial control.Ethiopia’s push for maritime access has exacerbated tensions, with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed signing a controversial deal with Somaliland to gain access to the Gulf of Aden. Eritrea perceives this as a direct threat, fearing that Ethiopia may attempt to reclaim Eritrean ports in Assab and Massawa. In response, Eritrea has mobilized its military reserves and bolstered troop deployments along its southern border, moves seen as preparations for potential conflict.
Adding to the instability, internal political divisions in Ethiopia are further complicating efforts to maintain peace. The TPLF, once the dominant political force in Ethiopia, is now fragmented, with rival factions led by former chairman Debretsion Gebremichael and interim leader Getachew Reda. Reports indicate that dissident Tigrayan Defense Forces (TDF) units have seized control of parts of eastern Tigray, heightening fears of internal strife that could spill over into a broader conflict.
Eritrea has rejected accusations that it is fueling tensions, with Information Minister Yemane G. Meskel denying claims of interference in Ethiopia’s internal affairs. "The Pretoria Agreement concerns Ethiopia’s internal matters and should not be extended beyond its borders," he stated. However, Ethiopian officials have accused Eritrea of exploiting Tigray’s internal divisions to weaken the fragile peace deal.
A report by Foreign Policy has urged urgent intervention by the African Union, Gulf nations, and Western powers, warning that unchecked escalation could destabilize the entire Horn of Africa and disrupt critical Red Sea trade routes. The report highlights the potential for conflict to spill over into Sudan, where civil war has already created severe humanitarian and security challenges.